The Outlook for Iran and its neighbours in 2016

The Outlook for Iran and its neighbours in 2016-
An Analysis by EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS

“A specialist intelligence company that forecasts commercially relevant political and violent risks worldwide so as to deliver accurate, decision-ready forecasts to a broad range of sectors including insurance and reinsurance, financial services, shipping, banking, oil and gas, aviation, mining, cargo and logistics, governments, NGOs and media.” http://www.exclusive-analysis.com/

Zaineb leads a team of experts and analysts covering the Middle East and North Africa and regularly meets and de-briefs sources and contacts from the region. She has advised clients on the future of sanctions targeting Iran, Iranian domestic politics, risks to southern Iraqi and Kurdish oil assets, the role of militias in Iraq, civil unrest and political stability risks in Bahrain, and the future business outlook in Egypt.

She took the lead on special projects such as the February 2011 Game Changer Scenarios in the Middle East and North Africa and the December 2011 Iraq’s Oil & Gas Sector: Risks to Contracts in the Year Ahead.

Zaineb has spoken at OSAC, Exporta’s Middle East Trade Credit and Finance conference, the International Underwriters Association, the Lloyds Joint Cargo Committee, the Hong Kong Chamber of Commerce, The Reuter’s Reporting on International Security and Terrorism Conference and the China Exim Bank, amongst others. Zaineb has been interviewed by numerous media outlets such as the BBC’s World Service, Bloomberg, CNBC and Reuters.

She received a BA at the University of Oxford in Middle Eastern Studies and an MA from SOAS in International Studies and Diplomacy. Before joining Exclusive Analysis, Zaineb participated in the Iraqi Task Force while working for the United Nations in Beirut.

Recent Media Appearances:

• 22 March 2012: Strategic Risk: Violent Risks Likely to Decrease in Iraq
• 6 February 2012: CNBC: Iran War Risks
• 1 February 2012 : Correio Braziliense: El Baradei Generates Scepticism Among Western Powers
• 23 June 2011: FT’s DealReporter: Major Oil Groups Circle Kurdistan Iraq
• 14 April 2011: Reuters: Yemen’s Saleh Hangs on, Still Hopes to Outwit Foes
• 20 March 2011: Independent on Sunday: Will the no-fly zone stop Libya's dictator?
• 21 February 2011: Wealth Briefing: Risk Analysts Ponder Dangers in North Africa, MidEast as Protests Erupt

John is responsible for all violent risk output at Exclusive Analysis (EA) for the marine and cargo sectors, including the weekly Global Violent Risk Forecast. John is in charge of the EA inputs to the Lloyds Joint Cargo Committee (JCC) Watch list and EA’s Marine Watch list, which quantify risk to selected countries specifically for the cargo and marine sectors. He works alongside regional specialists to determine the indicator events that would signal a change in violent risk relevant to clients.

John briefs the JCC on a monthly basis on risks to the marine and cargo sectors. His briefings also include selected issues of importance to committee members, such as piracy in the Gulf of Aden, civil unrest and supply disruption risks in the Middle East and North Africa and port disruption in India and Peru. John spoke on advanced risk management in the marine and cargo sectors at the Federation for European Risk Management Associations in October 2011 in Stockholm, Sweden.

An expert in terrorism and military intelligence, John has provided key content to such special reports as: the on-going series Iran War Risks: Will the US/Israel Strike in 2012? ; Middle East and North Africa Scenarios 2011; Middle East Contagion Risks Scenarios; Terrorism Hotspots in Afghanistan; Terrorism Risks in Libya; Somali Piracy and Al-Shabab; and Risks to Cargo in Pakistan’s Khyber Pass.

Prior to joining EA in November 2008, John was a career Army officer (1963-98, Colonel, R IRISH). His Army service included tours in Belize and the Lebanon. In 1983, he commanded the UK contingent of the Multinational force in Beirut and from 1988-90 he was UK Defence Attaché in Baghdad. John had extensive experience as a soldier in the MOD (1990– 98), including in the Defence Intelligence Staff, where he was Head of Current Intelligence, and the Defence Commitments staff.

On leaving the Army in 1998, John became a Ministry of Defence Senior Civil Servant (1998-2007, Director Defence Security). His last MOD appointment was Senior Adviser to the Iraqi Minister of Defence and Head of the Multinational MOD Transition Team April-November 2007. His responsibilities as Director Defence Security included the application of risk management and corporate governance to protective security, promotion of terrorist threat awareness and MOD policy on counter-terrorism protective measures, involving close liaison with the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) and the Security Service.